Briefingscommodities2 min read

Sample briefing: how a commodity outlook is written

An illustrative sample, not a market note: it shows how a GARI commodity briefing is structured. It reports no real event, price or reading.

This is an illustrative sample. It describes the shape of a GARI commodity briefing — what each part of one is for — rather than any market, and it reports no observation of its own.

A commodity briefing opens with the move: what changed over the period, and whether it was inside or outside the band the engine had published beforehand. The band matters more than the move. A briefing that only reported the direction would be a headline; the discipline is to say where the outcome sat relative to what we said would happen.

The second part attributes the change. The engine separates the drivers it can measure — inventories, the rate outlook, positioning, seasonality — and reports how much weight each one carries, with the honest remainder left unattributed. In an illustrative move from €100 to €110 per tonne, the briefing's job is to say which of those drivers carried the ten euros and how confident we are in the split, not to assert a single cause.

The third part is the reading for a decision-maker, written twice: once for a buyer, for whom the top edge of the band is the number that breaks a budget, and once for a trader, for whom the gap between the median and that edge is the position. The last part is dated and kept, so a reader can come back later and check whether we were right.

Keep reading

Related briefings

2026-08-25Sample briefing: how a quarterly macro note is built
macroai

Sample briefing: how a quarterly macro note is built

An illustrative sample, not a market note: it shows how a GARI quarterly macro briefing is assembled. It reports no real indicator, direction or reading.

2026-07-20Sample briefing: how a shock is traced through the network

Sample briefing: how a shock is traced through the network

An illustrative sample, not a market note: it shows how a GARI briefing traces a disruption from one node to the next. It reports no real event, route or region.

Subscribe to Market Lens.

Turn global chaos into buying confidence.

Published pricing — no sales call to see it. Self-serve from €200/month; Procurement module and enterprise agreements on request.

Commission a question.

Tell us the decision you are facing and the horizon you plan against. You will hear back from a person, not a pipeline.